The West Asia conflict has added a new layer of shocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs, weakening demand and declining consumer confidence.
Early signs of disruption
It is expected that lower global GDP growth (+2.6% in 2026), higher global inflation (4.3% in 2026) and stronger fiscal pressure, with higher energy and input costs and weak demand shall add to the pressure of 10.5% effective US tariffs on companies’ margins. Even in the best-case scenario, a post-ceasefire recovery in the Strait of Hormuz would take time (reaching 15-30% of normal levels). Against this backdrop, the 5th edition of the Allianz Trade Global Survey, asked 6,000 companies in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UAE, the UK, the US and Vietnam about their outlook for 2026, before and after the outbreak of war.
Export confidence has held up better than during the 2025 tariff shock - dropping only 6pps to 75% of exporters still expecting positive growth - compared to the 40pps collapse after “Liberation Day.” However, the impact is uneven: Vietnamese, American and Spanish firms lost more than 10pps of confidence, while Chinese firms, already weakened by the trade war, lost 9pps to 51%.
Logistics and energy are the most immediate concerns. 60% of firms are worried about supply-chain disruption and rising energy and commodity prices. In the wake of the war Iran, countries are faced with different challenges. Some are highly exposed and with low buffers (e.g. Vietnam, Thailand etc.), others are exposed but have buffers through reserves, alternative suppliers etc. (e.g. European countries, China etc.). Against this backdrop, Vietnamese (79%), Polish (76%), British (72%) and American (71%) firms show high levels of concern. In contrast, Indian and Chinese firms appear relatively less worried.
Operational adjustments have accelerated. Over half of companies are now seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers – especially in Vietnam (60%), the US and India (55% each). Many are also working with customs brokers to expedite clearance (Vietnam 64%, India 56%) or adjusting delivery schedules. These operational responses are moving faster than contractual changes.
Trade finance conditions are tightening. The share of firms expecting payment terms to deteriorate has rebounded to 43% (+5pps since the conflict began), with the sharpest rises in Brazil (+18pps), the UAE (+10pps), India and Vietnam (+9pps each). Non-payment risk fears have risen to 40% of firms (+6pps vs. pre-conflict), with the most exposed sectors being pharmaceuticals, construction, and computers/telecoms.
Reshoring dynamics have shifted. The conflict has accelerated reshoring intent, particularly in Europe – Poland, the UK and France lead this shift – while US and Vietnamese firms moved in the opposite direction. The UAE shows a bifurcated response, reflecting its dual role as both a logistics hub and a geography directly exposed to the crisis.
AI optimism has taken a hit. The share of firms expecting AI to drive export growth of +10% fell 8pps post-conflict, from ~30% before the war.
Source - Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026 - Business as Unusual
